School Board News

You’ve heard about the “graying” of America. You’ve likely heard of the “browning” of America.

But have you ever considered what America will be like when it is both brown and gray?

We could be in for a rough ride, James Johnson, director of the Urban Investment Strategies Center at the University of North Carolina, predicted at a conference of NSBA’s Council of Urban Boards of Education (CUBE) in Austin, Texas, last week.

“This country . . . every state, every urban school district is in the midst of an unprecedented demographic transformation,” he said. “Buckle your seatbelts.”

Johnson wasn’t saying a growing minority population—or an aging population—is, in and of itself, a bad thing. But both trends, acting in unison, will have an immense impact on the nation.

And, if policymakers aren’t preparing for what’s to come, the nation will be the worse for it.

For one, the graying of America will lead to a smaller pool of skill labor and affluent taxpayers to support the nation’s Social Security and Medicaid systems—just as both systems are confronted with growing numbers of aging citizens demanding their services.

At the same time, the nation is facing growing competition in the global economy—and, as the Baby Boomer generation begins to retire, the U.S. workforce is going to lose a sizable number of experienced and talented workers needed to compete.

“What’s going to happen when that knowledge leaves?” Johnson asked. “It goes with you. The problem is there are not enough people behind you for you to transfer that knowledge to the next generation. Big corporations have no handle on this succession problem. It’s going to haunt us because we’re not thinking strategically about this whole notion.”

One strategic solution would be to properly educate the next generation. And, as this generation will produce a smaller pool of workers, it’s more important than ever to reduce the dropout rate and ensure that every student gets a good education.

That’s where local school leaders can step up to the plate, Johnson said. By the middle of the century, almost one in four Americans will be Hispanic, which means schools must prepare to educate a sizable English-language learning population and attack the deplorably high dropout rate among Hispanics.

Otherwise, Johnson asked, “where is the next generation of talent going to come from? Do you not want to educate [immigrants—illegal and legal]? Do you not want to invest in them so they are prepared for the workplace?”

Right now, many communities appear unwilling to offer a resounding “yes.” Pulling up a map of the U.S., Johnson pointed out to conference attendees a vast swath of the nation where high-minority, low-income communities cannot provide adequate spending for education.

Meanwhile, in other communities, a predominately white, aging population has capped education spending at inadequate levels, partly because they have no children in the schools. As Johnson puts it, “They have no dog in that fight.”

Yet, even where taxpayers are putting money into the schools—often in communities with majority white populations—some schools are racially isolated or minorities are isolated within the schools. And an equal education isn’t always available.

“Kids of color are between the rock and hard place, no matter where they are,” Johnson said.

 But where is this short-sighted thinking going to lead the nation? Do policymakers want a future where the nation confronts of growing numbers of uneducated immigrants and minority workers—at the same time an aging population is pulling skilled and talented workers out of the economy?

“It’s not just a social and moral issue,” Johnson argued. “It’s a competitive issue. Who is going to prepare our nation, if all of us are aging? Who is going to care for us?

If these questions aren’t answered soon by policymakers, the fate of the nation may hang in the balance. In the future, Johnson said, the majority of Americans could be excluded from “mainstream opportunities”—good-paying jobs and access to the American Dream.

That’s not a formula to a successful nation, he warned. “I know of no country or society where you can exclude the majority and have an [aging] society that gets better . . . at the end of the day, it’s just that simple.”

Del Stover, Senior Editor